The Financial Times highlights one of the most striking conclusions of the latest ECB Financial Stability Report (full document here). The ECB, using FT’s words, “issued a stark warning over the threat posed by the scaling back of US monetary stimulus, calling on eurozone policy makers to do more to prepare for the market shocks from Federal Reserve tapering.”
There are of course many reasons why a change of policy of the largest world economy is closely monitored because of its potential impact. The ECB statements nevertheless are striking to me, because they are further confirmation of the small country syndrome that I pointed out in the past.
Quantitative Easing has been pivotal in ensuring that the hasty reversal of the fiscal stance in the United States did not dip their economy into a new recession. One may argue that today’s US economy is not sufficiently robust for exiting monetary stimulus. But it is sooner or later going to happen. The rest of the world has been free riding on Fed’s policies. In particular, the eurozone has benefited from QE in a context of sharp and pro-cyclical austerity, and very timid monetary policy.
Here is the statement I would have expected from the ECB: “The eurozone, the second largest economy of the world, has benefited from exceptional measures implemented by the Fed. This helped our economies and our financial markets in the context of a difficult consolidation process. Domestic factors in the United States will most likely cause a reversal of these policies. It is time European policy makers stand on their legs. As our economies persist in a state of chronic weakness, the ECB will consider its own quantitative easing program, to compensate for tapering in the United States, and provide to the European economy the environment it needs to rebound”
Such a statement, that I would find reasonable and balanced (maybe even too prudent), is nevertheless revolutionary nonsense in European policy circles. Instead we had the same old “copy-and-paste” demand to EMU countries of structural reforms and stable macroeconomic policies (read austerity). Not a single hint of even remotely possible non orthodox policies here at home. The sad truth is that we are structurally incapable of finding within our economy and our institutions the instruments to ensure growth and prosperity. We are structurally free riders. We siphon aggregate demand from the rest of the world running increasing current account balances, and we are not capable of implementing an autonomous monetary policy.
The world’s second largest economic area remains a parasite of the global economy, and it is incapable of living up to its responsibilities. Nothing good can come out of this.
Two articles on today’s Financial Times puzzle me. The first (Weidmann warns of currency war risk) offers yet another example of how economic analysis sometimes leaves the way to ideological beliefs. The Bundesbank’s president argues (as he already did in the past) that giving up inflation targeting hampers central bank independence. How? Why? He does not bother explaining.
What I think he has in mind is that once the objective of the central bank goes beyond strict inflation targeting, monetary policy needs an arbitrage between often conflicting objectives (typically unemployment and inflation). It is the essence of the dual mandate. This of course moves monetary policy out of the realm of technocratic choice, and makes it a political institution (Stephen King explains it nicely). I would argue that this is normal once we abandon the ideal-type of frictionless neoclassical economics, and we accept that we may have a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. But this is not the issue here. The issue, and the puzzle, is why transforming the choice from technocratic to political, should necessarily lead to giving up independence. Read more
I have read an interesting article by Wolfgang Münchau, on the Financial Times. To summarize, Münchau argues that because of politician’s complacency, there is a chance that the new OMTs program launched by the ECB will never be used, and hence prove ineffective in boosting the economy. He therefore argues that the ECB should have done like the Fed, and announce an unconditional bond purchase program (private and public alike).
The piece is interesting because Münchau is at the same time right, and off the target. It is worth trying to clarify.