Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

Paul Krugman on the End of the Euro

November 9, 2011 Leave a comment

There is no need to write a post on the latest developments in Italy and in the eurozone. Paul Krugman says better than I could, how close we are to Armageddon.
There is only one very minor point of dissent, that for once makes me less pessimist than he is. I give more importance to the Italian internal factors than he does. If a solution is found to the current political turmoil, there may be a truce in the speculative attacks, and the spreads may go down to more manageable levels.
It remains true that without a rapid u-turn of the ECB, speculation will not be defused.

Political Void

November 6, 2011 2 comments

Yesterday I gave a short interview (in French) on the crisis. In particular, my take on the Italian crisis is that the fundamentals are not dramatic, and certainly not worse than they were before the summer. The new element is the increasing political weakness of the Italian government. The absence of political leadership leaves the path open to speculation. Tito Boeri links the spreads to political mismanagement. Without going that far, it is plain that Italy  has a political problem far bigger than an economic one.

The EU situation is the same, on a bigger scale. There is a striking difference with the United States where the political system, even in a situation of divided government and economic crisis, can stand in front of speculation. In Europe, the political void leaves the field wide open for market primacy over governments.